IMI Interdisciplinary Mathematics InstituteCollege of Arts and Sciences

Cholera dynamics: Modeling, analysis and simulation

  • April 11, 2016
  • 1:15 p.m.
  • LeConte 312

Abstract

Cholera is a severe water-borne infectious disease which remains a significant public health burden in developing countries. In this talk, we present a mathematical modeling framework based on systems of nonlinear differential equations to explore the infection dynamics of cholera. An emphasis of this study is the interplay of biological, environmental, physical and socioeconomic factors that shapes the complex pattern of cholera epidemics. Particularly, we discuss recently developed models that explicitly incorporate both human-to-human and environment-to-human transmission pathways and that take into account the impacts of spatial heterogeneity and seasonal variation. We establish results of disease extinction and persistence and compare the threshold dynamics in homogeneous and heterogeneous settings, using both mathematical analysis and numerical simulation. In addition, we validate the analytical predictions through realistic case studies.

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